Pinellas County Real Estate Market Update - Fall 2026

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Truvera's quarterly look at the Pinellas County housing market, for agents, lenders, buyers, sellers and investors. This edition covers the third quarter of 2026 (July through September) and what we expect for October through December.

Pinellas County came through the summer with firmer prices and fewer homes for sale. The median single-family home sold for $464,950 in August, up 6.9% from a year ago, while active single-family listings fell 18.5% to 3,050. Condos are slowly finding their footing too, with supply down from 8.0 to 6.4 months.

The twist came in September. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023, and the 30-year mortgage rate climbed past 7%. That sets up a cooler, more negotiable fall, with a property tax vote, a flood insurance deadline and the end of hurricane season all landing before New Year's.

A note on timing: Official September figures from Stellar MLS and Florida Realtors are released in late October. This edition uses July and August as the quarter's closed-sale data and September's rate and policy news. We'll add September's numbers to this post when they publish.

Q3 2026 at a glance

Single-family prices and speed improved for sellers, while sales volume dipped. Condos remain the buyer-friendly side of the market, but the gap is narrowing.

Pinellas County, August 2026	Single-family	vs. Aug 2025	Condo & townhouse	vs. Aug 2025
Closed sales	854	-8.3%	463	-6.5%
Median sale price	$464,950	+6.9%	$275,000	+5.8%
Average sale price	$624,374	+7.1%	$359,926	-21.9%
New listings	1,010	-6.7%	687	+1.0%
New pending sales	805	-13.9%	491	+1.2%
Active listings (inventory)	3,050	-18.5%	3,529	-5.7%
Months of supply	3.5	was 4.4	6.4	was 8.0
Median days to contract	37	was 48	74	was 68
Median % of original list price received	95.3%	was 93.3%	91.7%	was 91.2%
Cash share of sales	30.6%	was 33.9%	59.0%	was 59.0%

Source: Suncoast Tampa Association of REALTORS® / Stellar MLS, Pinellas monthly report, August 2026.

Single-family and condo figures are reported separately throughout this update, because they are behaving like two different markets.

The quarter in five numbers

1,795 single-family homes closed in July and August, down just 2.3% from 1,838 a year earlier.
1,041 condos and townhomes closed in July and August, up 10.0% from 946.
$465,000 is the year-to-date single-family median, up 4.5% from 2025.
7.03% was the average 30-year mortgage rate on September 24, up from 6.30% a year earlier (Freddie Mac).
0 hurricanes have hit Florida so far in 2026, a welcome contrast to Helene and Milton in 2024.

Single-family homes: tighter supply, firmer prices

Pinellas single-family homes are selling faster and closer to asking than a year ago, because there are far fewer of them for sale.

Prices. The median sale price was $469,000 in July (+7.8% year over year) and $464,950 in August (+6.9%). Both months came off a spring peak of $480,000 in June. Year to date, the median is $465,000, up 4.5%.

Supply. Active listings dropped to 3,076 in July and 3,050 in August, versus 3,996 and 3,744 a year ago. That leaves about 3.5 months of supply, down from 4.4 to 4.8 months last summer. Under roughly 5 months generally favors sellers; 5 to 6 months is considered balanced.

Speed and negotiation. The typical home went under contract in 34 days in July and 37 days in August, about 8 to 11 days faster than 2025. Sellers received a median 95.3% to 95.8% of their original list price, up from 93.3%. In other words, the typical discount off the first asking price shrank from about 6.7% to between 4.2% and 4.7%.

Sales volume. July closings rose 3.7% to 941, then August fell 8.3% to 854. New pending sales in August dropped 13.9% to 805, an early sign that higher rates were already cooling demand before the Fed's September move. Year to date, 6,961 single-family homes have closed, down 4.0%.

Where the sales were, by price range (August)

Price range	Aug 2026 sales	Aug 2025 sales	Change
Under $300,000	117	162	-27.8%
$300,000–$399,999	181	227	-20.3%
$400,000–$599,999	274	277	-1.1%
$600,000–$999,999	183	178	+2.8%
$1 million and up	99	87	+13.8%

The slowdown is almost entirely below $400,000, where sales fell by about a quarter. Homes at $400,000 and up held steady, and million-dollar sales rose 13.8%. Part of the rising median is this mix shift: fewer entry-level sales pull the middle number up. Redfin's countywide price per square foot, which is less sensitive to mix, rose a more modest 1.4% year over year (Redfin).

Cash and distress. Cash buyers made up 30.6% of August single-family sales, down from 33.9%. That means more deals depend on lender approvals, appraisals and insurance binders. Distressed sales remain rare: 5 foreclosures and 7 short sales out of 854 closings.

Source: Suncoast Tampa Association of REALTORS® / Stellar MLS monthly reports for July and August 2026.

Condos and townhomes: still a buyer's market, but recovering

Pinellas condos remain the most negotiable part of the market, yet every supply measure improved this quarter.

Supply is shrinking. Months of supply fell to 6.7 in July and 6.4 in August, down from 8.5 and 8.0 a year ago. Active condo listings are 3,529, down 5.7%. Above 6 months still leans toward buyers, but the market has moved more than a full month toward balance since spring.

Sales are up for the year. July condo closings jumped 28.2% to 578. August slipped 6.5% to 463, but July and August together were up 10.0%. Year to date, 4,714 condos and townhomes have closed, up 19.6%, at a median of $295,000 (+9.3%).

Prices are firming at the middle, softer at the top. The August median was $275,000 (+5.8%), and July was $272,000 (+8.8%). The average price fell 21.9% to $359,926 because million-dollar condo sales dropped from 48 to 20. Sales between $400,000 and $600,000 rose, while sales under $300,000 were mixed.

Expect patience. The typical condo took 74 days to go under contract in August and 109 days to close. Sellers received a median 91.7% of their original list price, so a discount of roughly 8% off the first asking price is normal.

Cash is king here. 59.0% of August condo sales were cash, the same as last year. Many buyers are avoiding financing hurdles on buildings with pending repairs or reserve questions.

Why condos are different

Florida's post-Surfside condo safety laws are the main reason. Buildings three stories or taller need a milestone structural inspection at 25 years old if they are within 3 miles of the coast, and at 30 years elsewhere, then every 10 years. Associations also had until December 31, 2025 to complete a structural integrity reserve study (SIRS) and must fund those reserves.

For many older Pinellas buildings, that meant special assessments and higher HOA dues in 2025. Now that the SIRS deadline has passed, buyers can see each building's reports and reserve plans. That transparency is helping well-run, well-funded buildings sell again. Buildings with large unfunded repairs are still discounted.

Source: Suncoast Tampa Association of REALTORS® / Stellar MLS monthly reports for July and August 2026; condo law summary from The HOA Guide.

The trend lines: 2026 vs. 2025

Two charts tell most of this year's Pinellas story.

The single-family median climbed through spring, peaked in June and eased only slightly over the summer, staying ahead of last year the whole way.

Single-family supply has stayed below 4 months all year, firmly in seller territory. Condo supply started 2026 higher than 2025, then fell steadily from February on, closing in on the balanced range.

Charts: Suncoast Tampa Association of REALTORS® / Stellar MLS monthly reports, January–August 2025 and 2026.

Around the county: city by city

St. Petersburg and Clearwater led price growth this summer, while mid-county and North Pinellas cooled slightly.

City	Median sale price	vs. last year	Typical days to sell	Period (3 months ending)
Clearwater	$395,000	+11.2%	64	August 2026
St. Petersburg	$430,000	+7.4%	59	August 2026
Largo	$350,000	-3.9%	55	August 2026
Dunedin	$440,000	-0.3%	49	July 2026
Palm Harbor	$405,000	-2.5%	41	June 2026
Tarpon Springs	$388,000	-5.9%	54	June 2026
Pinellas Park	$315,000	-6.0%	40	June 2026

Source: Redfin city data, all home types combined (single-family, condo and townhome). Redfin posts each city on its own schedule, so the periods differ; we'll align them in future editions as data allows.

City medians move with the mix of homes sold, so treat single-digit changes as "flat to modest."

What stands out

St. Petersburg keeps drawing out-of-state buyers. Redfin reports New York buyers searched St. Pete more than buyers from any other metro, followed by Chicago and Washington, D.C.
Clearwater's double-digit gain likely reflects more higher-priced sales, since its price per square foot actually slipped 3.6%.
Largo and Pinellas Park, the county's more affordable markets, saw prices ease. That matches the countywide drop in sales under $400,000.
North Pinellas (Dunedin, Palm Harbor, Tarpon Springs) is holding steady on price with healthy sales activity.
The barrier islands are still in rebuild mode after Helene and Milton. Beach sales are thin and vary widely by elevation, flood history and whether a home was substantially damaged. Value there is property-by-property, not neighborhood averages.

Mortgage rates and affordability: the September surprise

Rates rose about half a point during the quarter, adding roughly $150 a month to the payment on a median-priced Pinellas home.

What happened. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its target rate by 0.25 point to 3.75%–4.00%, a unanimous vote and its first increase since 2023. The Fed said inflation "remains elevated" (Advisor Perspectives). Mortgage rates had already been climbing.

Freddie Mac weekly survey	30-year fixed	15-year fixed
Late June 2026 (our last update)	6.49%	—
September 10, 2026	6.76%	6.09%
September 24, 2026	7.03%	6.42%
September 2025 (a year ago)	6.30%	5.49%

Sources: Freddie Mac releases for September 10 and September 24; June figure from our June 2026 update.

What it means for a monthly payment

Principal and interest on a 30-year loan with 10% down, before taxes, insurance and HOA dues:

Home	Price	Rate	Monthly P&I
Median single-family, Aug 2025	$435,000	6.30%	$2,423
Median single-family, Aug 2026	$464,950	6.49%	$2,642
Median single-family, Aug 2026	$464,950	7.03%	$2,792
Median condo, Aug 2026	$275,000	7.03%	$1,652

A buyer of the median single-family home now pays about $369 more per month than a year ago, a 15% jump. About $150 of that comes from this summer's rate move alone. That explains why sales under $400,000 slowed most: entry-level buyers are the most payment-sensitive.

Tips for buyers in a 7% market:

Compare at least three lender quotes. Freddie Mac's chief economist regularly notes that shopping can save buyers thousands.
Ask about seller-paid rate buydowns. With 95% of list price the norm, sellers often have room to contribute.
Look at adjustable-rate options carefully, and only with a plan for when the rate resets.
Get homeowners and flood insurance quotes before you write an offer, not after.

Insurance, flood and storm recovery

Homeowners insurance is finally getting cheaper in Florida, but flood coverage and storm rebuilding still shape many Pinellas deals.

Homeowners insurance is easing. Forty-eight insurers have filed for rate decreases since January 2024. In September, the average requested rate change across Florida filings was -4.8%, compared with +5.2% five years ago (Hoodline, Sept. 23, 2026). Citizens Property Insurance, the state-backed insurer of last resort, has shrunk from 1.42 million policies in October 2023 to under 300,000 this spring as private carriers returned.

In Pinellas, Citizens had 20,791 policies in force in April 2026, with an average premium of $1,911 (Citizens county data via Move With Momentum). More private options mean buyers can often find better coverage. It still pays to shop early, especially for older roofs and coastal properties.

Flood insurance has a new deadline: December 11. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was set to expire September 30. Congress extended it through December 11, 2026 in a short-term spending bill (NAHB). If it lapses, NFIP cannot issue new policies. That can delay closings on financed homes in flood zones, which describes a large share of Pinellas.

A quiet storm season so far. Through September, the 2026 Atlantic season has produced five named storms and no hurricanes, and none made landfall in Florida (Wikipedia summary). The season runs through November 30.

Rebuilding is still underway. Pinellas County's recovery reports put housing damage from Hurricanes Idalia, Helene and Milton at $3.52 billion, with more than 19,000 homes damaged and 93% of verified losses caused by flooding. The county received $813.7 million in federal disaster recovery funds. As of June 30, its main homeowner rebuild program had 2,554 applications, 35 signed grant agreements and 2 homes completed (Pinellas County Q2 2026 progress report).

For buyers on or near the water, the key questions are whether a home was substantially damaged under the FEMA 50% rule, whether it has been elevated, and what permits were closed. Those answers drive insurance cost, lending and value.

Policy watch: what's on the table

The biggest policy item this fall is Amendment 3, the property tax measure on the November 3 ballot.

Amendment 3: property tax changes (November 3, 2026)

Amendment 3 needs at least 60% of the statewide vote to pass. If approved, it takes effect January 1, 2027. Here is what it would do, according to the Pinellas County Property Appraiser:

	Today (2026)	If Amendment 3 passes
Homestead exemption, non-school taxes	$25,000 + $26,411 (about $51,411 total)	$150,000 in 2027, $250,000 in 2028, then indexed to inflation
Homestead exemption, school taxes	$25,000	$25,000 (unchanged)
New Florida residents (homestead from 2027 on)	Same as everyone	Start at $50,000; full exemption after four years
Non-homestead assessment cap (rentals, second homes, commercial)	10% a year	5% a year (school taxes still uncapped)

The Property Appraiser estimates a typical Pinellas homesteaded owner would save about $1,203 in 2027 and $2,423 in 2028, based on the 2025 countywide average non-school millage rate.

State economists project the change could reduce local government property tax collections by up to $12 billion a year statewide within five years. Supporters, led by Florida Realtors, have raised $18 million; opponents, including two political committees, have raised about $537,000 (WUWF). Polls vary widely. A St. Pete Polls survey released September 23 showed 45% support, 30% opposed and 25% undecided (FOX 13).

Why it matters to the market: Passage would lower carrying costs for homesteaded owners and slow tax growth on rental property, which investors will price in. It could also encourage some buyers to wait for clarity until after Election Day. We'll report the result and what it means for closings in our Winter 2027 update.

Property values and your November tax bill

The Property Appraiser's May 2026 estimates show Pinellas's total market value of real property fell 2.06% to $214.4 billion. Taxable value still rose 4.20% to $139.8 billion, because Save Our Homes caps let assessed values keep catching up to market value (PCPAO 2026 estimates). New construction added $3.15 billion in taxable value.

Property tax bills go out in early November, with a 4% discount for paying in November. At closing, taxes are prorated between buyer and seller, so a November or December closing will settle the 2026 bill.

Condo rules: a quieter year in Tallahassee

The 2026 legislative session made few changes to condo law (Florida Condo & HOA Law Blog). The big rules from 2024 and 2025 still apply: milestone inspections, SIRS reserve funding, and HB 913's option for associations to pause or reduce reserve contributions for up to two budgets through 2028, with a majority owner vote and a completed milestone inspection.

Federal items to watch

NFIP deadline: December 11, 2026 (see above).
Federal Reserve meetings: October 27–28 and December 8–9. Markets were pricing in a chance of another increase in December, per Advisor Perspectives.

What it means for you

Pinellas is a two-speed market: firm for well-priced single-family homes, patient for condos, and more rate-sensitive than it was in the spring.

For sellers

Single-family sellers still have the edge, with 3.5 months of supply and a typical 95% of list price received. But price it right on day one; pending sales fell 13.9% in August as rates rose.
Below $400,000, expect more negotiation. That's where buyers are most squeezed by 7% rates. Offering a rate buydown can widen your buyer pool more than a price cut of the same cost.
Condo sellers: have your association's milestone inspection, SIRS, budget and any special assessment details ready before you list. Buyers and lenders will ask, and a complete package shortens the typical 74 days to contract.
Ordering the estoppel certificate and title search early helps catch HOA balances, open permits or liens before they delay closing.

For buyers

Condos offer the most leverage, with 6.4 months of supply and sellers accepting about 92% of original list price.
Single-family competition is real but not frantic. Only about one in nine homes countywide sold above list in recent months, per Redfin.
Get your insurance and flood quotes during your inspection period. Rates are falling, but coverage still varies widely by roof age, elevation and flood zone.
Ask about storm history. For homes in flood zones, request elevation certificates, permit history and whether the home was substantially damaged in 2024.

For investors

Rents are flat. St. Petersburg's median rent was $1,426 in September, up 1.4% from a year ago. The Tampa Bay metro was down 2.2% (Apartment List).
Run the math with real carrying costs. A $275,000 condo rented at St. Pete's median two-bedroom rent of $1,545 grosses about 6.7% a year before HOA dues, insurance, taxes, vacancy and repairs. HOA dues alone can cut that sharply in older buildings.
Cash still dominates condos (59% of sales), so financed investors compete better where buildings are lender-friendly.
Watch Amendment 3. A 5% cap on annual assessment increases for non-homestead property would make future tax bills on rentals more predictable.
Distressed inventory is almost nonexistent. Only 12 of 854 single-family sales in August were foreclosures or short sales.

For agents and lenders

More financed deals means more moving parts. Cash fell to 30.6% of single-family sales, so appraisals, insurance binders and underwriting set the timeline more often.
Flood-zone closings need a December 11 plan. If NFIP lapses, new flood policies stop. Bind coverage early on any financed purchase closing near that date.
Use this data in your listing presentations. Feel free to share this update with your clients, and tag us when you do.

Q4 2026 outlook: October through December

We expect a slower, more negotiable fourth quarter, with prices holding near current levels rather than falling. Higher rates will trim sales, but tight single-family supply should keep prices firm.

Indicator	Latest reading	Our Q4 expectation
30-year mortgage rate	7.03% (Sept. 24)	6.75%–7.25%, driven by inflation data and the Fed's Oct. 28 and Dec. 9 decisions
Single-family median price	$464,950 (Aug.)	$450,000–$470,000, a normal seasonal dip from summer
Single-family monthly closings	854 (Aug.)	700–900 a month, flat to slightly below last fall
Single-family months of supply	3.5	3.3–3.8: still seller-leaning
Condo months of supply	6.4	6.0–7.0: buyer-leaning, improving as seasonal residents return
Homeowners insurance	48 insurers with rate cuts since 2024	More decreases at renewal, especially from private carriers

These are Truvera's expectations based on current trends, not guarantees. We'll grade them in our Winter 2027 update.

Key dates this quarter

Late October: September and Q3 county figures released by Florida Realtors and Stellar MLS.
October 28: Federal Reserve rate decision.
November 3: Election Day, including Amendment 3.
Early November: 2026 property tax bills mailed; 4% discount for November payment.
November 30: Hurricane season ends.
December 9: Federal Reserve rate decision and updated projections.
December 11: NFIP flood insurance authorization expires unless Congress extends it.

What could change our view

Upside: Softer inflation readings that pull mortgage rates back toward 6.5% would quickly bring sidelined buyers back, especially under $400,000.
Downside: Another Fed increase in December, a lapse in NFIP, or a late-season storm would slow closings.
Wild card: Amendment 3. A "yes" vote could pull some buyers off the fence in early 2027; either way, expect some buyers to wait for the result.

Your Clearwater title and escrow partner

Markets shift. A smooth closing shouldn't. Truvera Title & Escrow is a licensed, independent, locally owned title agency in Clearwater serving Pinellas, Hillsborough and Pasco counties.

We help agents, lenders, buyers, sellers and investors close with fewer surprises, from condo estoppels and flood-zone files to cash investor purchases.

Call: (727) 339-7728
Email: titleteam@truveratitle.com
Online: truveratitle.com for a title quote or to open a file

This update comes out every quarter. Look for our Winter 2027 edition in January, with full Q4 numbers, the Amendment 3 result and how our forecast held up. Want it in your inbox?

Join our email list at truveratitle.com, and browse past updates on our blog.

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This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax, insurance or financial advice. Market figures are from the sources listed below and may be revised.

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